4 May 2006

I've been busy with local chases and work, so not much chance to post forecasts. I won't be chasing today because I have to work tomorrow, and the target area is just too far away from Norman for a one day chase. Anyway, I would target the area around Big Spring to Snyder by about 22z. The synoptic front has passed ABI and should continue swd/swwd into this area during the afternoon, though movement shouldn't be too fast given all of the insolation in the wake of the central TX MCV from last night.

Water vapor imagery and morning soundings suggest that the nose of a belt of modest mid-upper flow (35-50 kt) is nosing enewd over W TX. Another thing to consider is the ground moisture gradient from previous rains that appears to extend across Mitchell and Borden Cos. This moister ground will line up reasonably well with the cool side of the front this afternoon, which may help maintain a relatively moister BL. Once surface temps warm to the upper 80s S of the front, initiation will become more probable. Storm motion may roughly parallel the boundary, which could help with a localized tornado threat.