12 March 2006 - E/SE KS or OK dryline?

The overnight trend has been to shift the target area S and W from literal interpretations of 00z model forecasts. Morning water vapor imagery shows the main wave still back in AZ, with associated lee cyclogenesis along the CO/KS border. The warm front is moving N from OK/AR to KS/MO, with the boundary being slowed by convection near SE MO. Ongoing KS storms, some of which are elevated supercells, may tend to keep the warm front even farther S than I-70 through this afternoon.

Given the volatile OUN 12z sounding, expect a warm sector with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, with convective temps ranging from 88-90 F in OK, to the low-mid 80s in SE KS. My initial target will be the srn fringe of the ongoing KS storms (which should spread newd), and E of the dryline/warm front triple point. Tornadoes will be possible, even some strong, though I'd like to see slightly better low-level shear in the warm sector to be even more confident. At least convective mode should be dominated by discrete supercells, which is better than you can expect on many early March chases. Those of you staying in OK should keep a close watch on the dryline along I-35 by mid-late afternoon.