10 March 2006 - Red River area this evening

Strong surface heating and a well-defined surface boundary/dryline may support isolated thunderstorm development this evening across N TX/S OK. Rapid moistening E of the dryline may be sufficient for one or two high-based storms from Fort Worth northward into southern OK. Based on surface temperatures in the low-mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 50s, sbCAPE may reach 1500 J/kg in an environment of 40-50 kt 0-6 km shear. If storms form, supercells would be the preferred mode with large hail a primary severe threat.