Saturday, January 28, 2006

28 January 2006 - VERIFICATION

A N-S line of storms formed in central/nrn KS around 20-21z and moved ewd. There were a few reports of .75-1.0" hail along the line, as well as one tornado 2 NE of Newton, KS at 2129z.

The deep convection struggled to form farther S on the dryline in OK/TX.

28 January 2006 - warm up forecast (17z)

An interesting scenario for January, but pretty marginal for chase prospects. Wind profiles will display backing with height, while surface heating will be limited to a narrow band west of the large rain shield. It appears that the best lapse rate environment will be across NW OK into KS, and the somewhat richer low-level moisture will be confined to southern OK and TX. Given the very limited tornado threat with dryline storms this afternoon, I'd play the steepest lapse rates and strongest surface heating toward central KS.

I see today as a chance to warm up for later this spring, and maybe find some small hail to go with a few pictures of low-topped thunderstorms.